Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Arsenal Analysis

Last season Arsenal came third in the league, and they did rather well considering how low the average age of their squad was. This season most of the squad are still there and everyone is a year older which hopefully means they are more experienced and possibly better in general.

At the same time Arsenal are being forced to delve into the transfer market a bit this summer because three of their central defenders (Sol Campbell, William Gallas and the geriatric aka Silvestre) have had their contracts not renewed, leaving Thomas Vermaelen and Johan Djourou to hold things together. Wenger said recently that he believed that a club required five central defenders to challenge on all fronts, so we can only assume that at least one more will arrive in addition to Laurent Koscielny. A new central striker, Marouane Chamakh, has also come in to the picture (on a free) and it will be interesting to see how his arrival changes things, but more on that later.

After a bit of research I was rather surprised by just how strong their squad for this season is. Here is their first team as of 28 July, 2010:

Manuel Almunia (GK)

Abou Diaby (MF)

Barcary Sanga (DF)

Cesc Fabregas (MF)

Thomas Vermaelen (DF)

Laurent Koscielny (DF)

Tomas Rosicky (FW)

Samir Nasri (MF)

Robin van Persie (FW)

Carlos Vela (FW)

Vito Mannone (GK)

Theo Walcott (FW)

Denilson (MF)

Aaron Ramsey (MF)

Alex Song (MF)

Jack Wiltshere (MF)

Johan Djourou (DF)

Lukasz Fabianski (GK)

Gael Clichy (DF)

Andrey Arshavin (FW)

Emmanuel Eboue (DF)

Kieran Gibbs (DF)

Marouane Chamakh (FW)

Armand Traore (DF)

Nicklas Bendtner (FW)

Wojciech Szczesny (GK)


For those of you who read my view on Manchester United, I have not highlighted any youth players who will probably not play any role in this season because I think everyone in the list above will play even though some of them should still be in the youth academy (this is Arsenal after all).

In my opinion, other than the obvious need for the club to invest in at least two more central defenders, there is a desperate need for a real goalkeeper. I once heard a tv commentator say that Shay Given will buy any team a minimum of 10 points a season and I believe he is spot on, but it would have been more accurate to say that a world class goalkeeper will buy a team 10 and probably more points a season.

In Almunia and Fabianski Arsenal don't even have two good goalkeepers. Neither are up to being a Champion's League club's first choice but I would say that both could be second and third choice keepers. It seems to me that the best option for a goalkeeper would be the same as the two available to Manchester United: Igor Ikanfeev or Hugo Lloris. Both are viable options for the club considering Ikanfeev's relationship with Arshavin and Wenger's affinity for French players but neither would be cheap.

I guess only time will tell if Wenger choose to buy. There have been rumors that Mark Schwarzer is going to make the switch from Fulham and while I think he'd be a better option than either of the current keepers I don't think he's as good as Liverpool, Chelsea or United's first team keepers. He's not even as good as Gomes or Given, and I think they need someone better.

The other interesting thing with Arsenal this season will be their formation. Last season the club played a fluid 4-3-3 with Fabregas (and occasionally Nasri) running midfield. Van Persie played alone up front with Arshavin and Bendtner coming in centrally, allowing a lot of interchanging amongst the front line.

Many thought that this formation had sort of been forced on them with Adebayor's departure, especially because previously Van Persie had not been seen as a 'target man'.

But with the arrival of Chamakh, a striker with a very similar build to that of Adebayor, the question of Van Persie's role is raised once again. Will the two be rotated or will Van Persie be used as a winger? Or could the formation change back to a 4-4-2? Personally I think that the only way the formation could change was if Fabregas were to become unavailable because to have him, and two strikers up front and only one battle hardened defensive / central midfielder would leave the middle rather thin.


I think it will be much the same as last season, with Fabregas given license to roam and run midfield with direct and fast wingers, a target striker and two enforcers in midfield. Fullbacks will be encouraged to get forward and cross and the center halves are all expected to be able to bring the ball forward from defence and to cover for the fullbacks during attacking phases.

I've chosen Eboue at right back because I simply don't rate Sanga, and I've chosen Diaby and Song because they are both inclined to sit a bit deeper and provide stability, especially when the fullbacks are getting as far forward as Wenger likes them too.

Clichy tends to sit a little deeper than Eboue, which is why I've put Diaby on the left side of central midfield, as he is more of a central midfielder than Song who is clearly a holding midfielder.



To be honest I don't think Arsenal have strengthened that much for this season, and unless they invest in a new goalkeeper I don't see them finishing above third this season, once again. Having said that, I do think that they'll finish above Manchester City and that they'll be around first place for a while. The thought of the beating Chelsea, for example, seems a little too much...

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